This Week's Issue

01.05.09: Insurance Report

1 roundtable forum, 2 analysts and 3 sector firms examine the Insurance segment in this 36-page report from The Wall Street Transcript.

Roundtable Forum - Life Insurance: Randy Binner, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, Inc.; John Nadel, Sterne Agee & Leach, Inc.

Property-Casualty/Reinsurance: Michael G. Paisan, Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Outlook for Property & Casualty Insurance: J. Paul Newsome, Sandler O'Neill + Partners, LP

CEO Interviews (average 2,500 words): Top management from 3 sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and sector. Firms interviewed include: American Financial Group, Inc., Employers Holdings, Inc., Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd.

Topics covered: Impact of the credit crisis - Poor equity markets - Variable annuity business outlook - Disability insurance - Increase in claims - Exposure to subprime and derivatives - Default risk - Raising capital - Hoarding cash resources - Cutting expenses - Mergers and acquisition activity - Market volatility - Management quality - Regulatory outlook - Access to TARP funds - Treasury loan to AIG - Credit ratings - Trader's market and pair trades - Investor interest - Stock recommendations

Companies covered: AIG (AIG); Prudential Financial (PRU); MetLife (MET); Assurant (AIZ); Aflac (AFL); Reinsurance Group of America (RGA); Hartford Financial (HIG); Principal Financial (PFG); Unum (UNM); Genworth (GNW); Lincoln National (LNC); StanCorp (SFG); Allianz (AZ).

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Off the Record: Gold & Precious Metals

2008-12-22 18:19:52

This week our Off the Record picks come from our special focus on Gold & Precious Metals. We spoke with analysts and CEOs in this space who gave us their anonymous picks in this space:
  1. Goldcorp (GG) - "They've got a very good track record of building out projects, drilling them out and growing them geologically. We think they've done a very good job in that regard."
  2. Kinross Gold (KGC)- "As a major we like Kinross Gold. They have a great growth profile in terms of major new projects coming on stream this year and over the next two or three years. And they're very well capitalized and we just like their growth profile and their cost structure."
  3. Yamana Gold (AUY)- "I would say it's Yamana Gold. Their consolidation plan has been absolutely extraordinary and they're positioned well in the market today."
For the complete Gold & Precious Metals report, including a complete examination of this space, and where it's headed in 2009 in addition to more stock picks, click here.

The Sun Still Shines on Solar

2008-11-12 17:52:43

Looking more closely at the Alternative Energy space this week, we spoke with Colin Rusch- a Solar Energy analyst at Broadpoint Securities Group. Rush was quite sunny about the business in Solar Energy, despite the dark times in other areas:
Mr. Rusch: From my channel checks, there is still a robust business happening for the solar industry...I think the solar industry is still in a positive stance looking at robust fundamentals in the near term and then really trying to sort out where mid-term fundamentals go. Longer term I think most everyone's in agreement that there's going to be a robust industry at far lower prices. It's important to note that much of the industry is already financed to do that sort of R&D and commercialization on cost saving measures.
For the complete Alternative Energy report, including a complete interview with Mr. Rusch, as well as an overview of different areas within the Alternative Energy space, click here.

The Bailout and Alternative Energy

2008-11-10 19:17:41

When Congress passed the $700 billion bailout, after much hullabaloo, the question remains when the effects of the bailout would be seen, and if, indeed, the bailout was a successful strategy. In our special focus on Alternative Energy here at TWST, we asked some of the analysts we talked to whether or not they got the response they expected from the bailout package, which included extended subsidies in the alternative energy space:
Mr. Pang: We haven't really gotten the lift in the group that we had expected. The sector has pretty much rebounded with the market so it hasn't really had any additional impact. I think there are a couple of reasons for this. One, it's still to be determined how the ITC will actually help individual companies. Two, and more important, the overall economic conditions are still a concern. If you look at what's happened with the group, not much has changed in terms of their guidance, but these stocks were off 50%, roughly, through the summer period.
For the full Alternative Energy report, including interviews with analysts from a variety of perspectives on the market and stock picks, click here.  

Top Picks in Steel

2008-10-15 17:18:09

Our top picks this week come from our second special focus on Steel Producers. Mark Parr, analyst with KeyBanc Capital Markets told a little about where he's directing investors to look in the Steel Producers space:
TWST: What names should investors look at? Mr. Parr: Near term, given the divergence between selling prices and scrap costs, we would focus a little more aggressively on the electric arc furnace steel producers like Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE). I think GrafTech (GTI) is another great small cap name. They are a material supplier in the steel industry, but it's a great fundamental story and the stock has really gotten caught up in this commodity downturn. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is another story that I think has really gotten caught up in the commodity downturn and has got a very bright future with some tremendous fundamental value that's not being realized in the market. Those are the four names I'd probably focus on right now.
For the full interview with Mr. Parr, including a complete overview of the Steel Production sector and an outlook for where its headed, click here. 

Off the Record- Oil & Gas Services & Equipment

2008-08-25 17:37:07

Our Off-the-Record this week focuses on management teams that are contributing most to shareholder value in the Oil and Gas Services and Equip sector. Here's the picks the people we interviewed had:
Dawson Geophysical Co. (DWSN)- "I think the guys at Dawson Geophysical are great, and you've got Decker Dawson there, who has now been in the seismic business I think he told me 61 years, so he's got a bit of experience on his side. In these types of environments I like any management that runs a business for the long-term; there are a lot of smaller companies out there where managements are running on a day-to-day basis or to put it another way, are trying to respond to what the market wants today. That's not what I want to see in this environment." National Oilwell Varco (NOV)- "I would mention National Oilwell Varco. Pete Miller, Clay Williams and their team have done a remarkable job after the combination of National and Varco. A merger of that size coming off as smoothly as it has is a real achievement." Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)- "Schlumberger you go to bed sleeping well at night knowing that they are going to be allocating their capital the proper way, knowing that they are going about their business the right way. While it may not always be the best performing stock, you have faith in that management because they are very smart." For the complete Off-the-Record report, including general comments on the industry as a whole, and more stock picks, click here.