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Roundtable Forum - Transportation & Logistics


Full article published: 10/05/2009


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TWST: Helane, let's start with you. Here we're in kind of an economic unknown, what's your reading from this space, which is generally a pretty good indicator for what's going on in the economy?
Ms. Becker: Our view has been that the freight companies would start to show some improvement in the third quarter of 2009, and I think we are starting to see that. For example, Lufthansa last month reported a 1% decline in cargo traffic and that's probably the best number we have seen all year. I think that we are going to see smaller declines than we've seen all year going into the back half of the year.

TWST: Robin, same question, what kind of reading are you getting on the status of the world economy from these companies at this point?
Mr. Byde: Pretty similar. Volumes have stabilized across a range of freight segments. If you look at ocean freight or airfreight or European or US trucking a lot of investors are turning their attention now to capacity and pricing. I think we all understand that volumes are improving, partly because of the comps effects. Last year's comps were pretty soft about this time and so volumes are going to look better, but now it is about pricing and margins. This year and next year, it's going to be very tough in terms of pricing. There is a lot of capacity out there and a lot of logistics companies competing very aggressively on price to maintain share.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: CSX, DAL, NSC, UNP, UPS, YRCW

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.