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Despite Volatility, Homebuilders Offer High Return, Diversification

Posted in General Investing on July 29th, 2010

For investors looking to diversify their portfolios, residential real estate stocks, such as homebuilders, are one solution.

“Diversification allows you to control risk,” said John F. Osbon, the founder and CIO of Osbon Capital Management. “Real estate’s valuable function is that it’s a hybrid. It has both bond and equity characteristics, and does not move in tandem with other markets necessarily.”

Osbon provides three key metrics to consider when investing in residential real estate.

“If you are looking for a high-return potential investment, I would have to say homebuilders are right near the top,” Osbon said. “If I were a speculator, I would say they are a great buy right now for a couple of very strong demographic reasons.”

Restaurants With Size & Scale Focus on International Growth

Posted in General Investing on July 28th, 2010

While restaurant stocks have shown signs of weakness, the fundamentals are more stable than the media or markets would have investors believe, says Credit Suisse Analyst Keith Siegner. He points to potential growth stories, despite the volatility in the U.S. consumer outlook.

“We believe investors should be focusing on large consumer multinationals with strong brands, high returns and free cash flows, international growth opportunities and the wherewithal to invest in comps in the U.S.,” said Siegner, adding that having the size and scale to pursue market share is imperative in the current economic environment.

Yum! Brands (YUM) and Starbucks (SBUX) are among Siegner’s favorite names — Yum! for its long-term growth potential and ability to tap into China’s emerging consumer class, and Starbucks for its investment in comps and international margin improvements.

Siegner places emphasis on international growth stories, seen in companies like McDonald’s (MCD) and Yum!.

“For Yum!, the YRI business, getting to be potentially a $1.25 billion business by 2015 from under $500 million now, is a huge opportunity,” Siegner said. “McDonald’s is very clearly targeting [Burger King (BKC)] as a share donor in Germany, Burger King’s largest European market.”

Expired Homebuyer Tax Credit Opens Door to Value Investors

Posted in General Investing on July 27th, 2010

Although the expiration of the federal first-time and move-up homebuyer tax credit has already led to weaker-than-expected buyer traffic during May and June, beleaguered homebuilders may experience some relief as the year progresses and several catalysts likely lead to price-to-book multiple expansion.

“We find the builder space to be attractive on valuation and long-term fundamentals, and suspect an appropriate entry point for equities could occur over the next six months,” said Michael Kim, a senior vice president at CRT Capital Group LLC. Kim points to the sizable tax refunds made available to homebuilders through the Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009, in addition to these companies’ high levels of cash and shortened construction timelines as several positive dynamics within the homebuilder universe.

“Our thesis has been that we will dance along the bottom for a little while until we get that boost to the broader economy, especially considering housing is estimated to represent almost 30% of GDP. Household formation and favorable demographic trends on a regional level should support a baseline level of demand,” Kim said. “Once you start to see job creation and greater consumer confidence, potential buyers will start looking at the move-up category, which someone like Standard Pacific (SPF) is more focused on.”

And while value investors may be sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the appropriate time to jump into the homebuilders market, Kim says it’s only a matter of time until we start to see more normalized housing starts.

“We suspect builder equities are going to be governed by market technicals rather than fundamentals, which has been the case more recently,” he said. “And we believe investors will gain more conviction for the public builders some time over the next six months, if the macro data provides more visibility on a broader economic recovery.”

This Week’s Top 5 Senior Management Quotes

Posted in General Investing on July 26th, 2010

From China’s growing urbanization to the U.S. residential real estate market, here’s a look at what’s on the minds of senior managers featured in The Wall Street Transcript’s newest issue, hot off the presses today and available at www.twst.com.

“When you look at our capital investments, we’re spending about $1 billion this year — almost half of that will be invested in China…We think this is the best opportunity for any global restaurant company for the 21st century.” — Tim Jerzyk, SVP Investor Relations, YUM! Brands

“So if you are looking for a high-return potential investment, I would have to say homebuilders are right near the top. Who needs venture capital when you have the homebuilders?” — John F. Osbon, Founder & CIO, Osbon Capital Management

“In China they enforce the building codes and regulations more strictly than before. So the accountability is higher, as is the willingness to go to the top-quality provider of premium concrete and pay the market price for the assurance of top-quality concrete products and services.” — Jeremy Goodwin, President & CFO, China Advanced Materials Construction Group, Inc.

“[T]he restaurant industry has a lot of growth potential. There are still a lot of great chains out there that have a lot of room to grow. We also think people in general are going to be eating out more 10 years from now than they are today.” — Jonathan Dash, Founder & President, Dash Acquisitions, LLC

Struggling A&P Takes on New CEO

Posted in Liberum Management Change on July 23rd, 2010

The Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Company GAP (NYSE), often referred to as as supermarket chain A&P, has appointed Sam Martin its new CEO and Chairman.  The company has been struggling.  Martin who just left his position as COO for OffiSam Martin, A&P’s new CEOce Max replaces Ron Marshall as the CEO.  Marshall, according to the press release,

left his position just after five months at the helm.

Ron Marshall, A&P’s CEO who has left his positionThe struggling retailer is faced with another key management change at the top while trying to right itself.  Just yesterday as part of the CEO announcement the company also announced its quarterly earnings which were far from reassuring.  The firm reported a fiscal quarterly loss of $122 million. While the selection of a CEO at the firm has been an example in how CEO selections should not be made, Martin’s selection may actually be the medicine the firm needs.

Martin, who some speculated wanted to become the CEO of Office Max and may have known he was going to be passed over, has the requisite qualifications to help The Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Company right itself has both high level operational expertise and a background in the food/supermarket business.  Prior to his stint as COO at Office Max, which began back in 2007, Martin served as an executive at Wild Oats before it was acquired by Whole Foods.  Prior to his work with Wild Oats Martin served with a number of other supermarket/food chains (Shopko stores and Fred Meyer).

Supermarket chains in general have been struggling during the economic recession as consumers seek out A&P One Year Stock Performancenew ways to reduce their food bills and still get convenience shopping.  Martin has a real challenge ahead of him but he appears to have the right type of expertise and business acumen to make a go of it.   Keep a close eye on the company there may be some positive surprises over the next year.

For more:

MarketWatch

Businessweek

NASDAQ

IT Staffing Shows Strong Demand in Temporary Employment Numbers

Posted in General Investing on July 22nd, 2010

Riding 10 consecutive months of improving numbers — and five months of year-over-year improvementstemporary job placement continues to outpace permanent employment growth, with professional IT staffing leading the way in temporary worker demand.

“Overwhelmingly, when I speak to professional-oriented staffing companies, the one vertical that they describe as the strongest, as experiencing the most recovery over the last four or five months, is the technology sector. The commentary we received is there is a shortage of highly qualified IT-related people out there that can service a lot of the projects that need to be done,” said Northcoast Research Holdings Analyst John Healy, who’s observed growing demand for IT professionals as companies begin to look into the technology updates they put off during the brunt of the recession.

“There is a little pent-up demand for IT spending, and I think companies are beginning to spend and they need people to come in and help manage and implement projects for them. And as business activity picks up for them, there is also a little bit more need for help desk operators, people to build security walls and firewalls for their business. So the IT demand that we’re seeing is very strong on the temp side,” he said.

Temporary staffing company Kforce (KFRC) is feeling the benefits of this pent-up demand, as are its competitors Manpower (MAN) and Adecco (ADEN), both of which recently purchased IT franchises.

“I think the IT business is growing faster than any end market and professional staffing, including finance and accounting, including legal, engineering, health care services,” Healy added. “And large global staffing companies are anticipating more pickup in demand for tech staffing, and they want to kind of bolster their portfolios.”

Smartphones the Biggest Disrupter in Telecom

Posted in General Investing on July 21st, 2010

With smartphones and devices such as Apple’s new iPad creating strong growth and leading the way in industry-disrupting technology, the telecom industry has been forced to respond with what has now become an overriding trend — the convergence of communications, computing and entertaining, and the subsequent restructuring of the industry along horizontal lines.

“These new [smartphone] devices are seeing amazing innovation in applications because they are not controlled by the service providers. The best example of these trends are in devices like the Droid, the Samsung (SSNLF) Galaxy and Apple’s (AAPL) iPad and the iPhone,” explained Timothy Horan, a managing director at Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. Horan predicts traditional IP and video applications will continue to cannibalize any additional wireline and wireless broadband capacity rolled out over the next several years, driving competition and forcing companies to become more horizontally focused on specific consumer bases.

The analyst specifically recommends companies Comcast (CMCSA) and American Tower (AMT) as his top picks.

“As [these companies] work through a lot of these changes and are benefiting from the convergence between this sector, computing and entertainment, I think many companies that are more horizontally focused are going to be very good longer-term investments,” Horan said. “In the near term, smartphones and new devices like the iPad are created strong growth. This is going to put a lot of pressure on the wireless networks that give them a little bit more pricing power.”

CEO Watch - Nokia CEO, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo

Posted in Liberum Management Change on July 16th, 2010

Over a month ago we briefly examined the continuing problems Nokia NOK1V, the world’s largest phone manufacturer, has found itself  facing with the explosive growth of the smartphone market.  Nokia unlike Apple and even Motorola, HTC, Samsung etc. has been a true laggard in this marketplace.  With this growing competition in the smartphone marketplace Nokia’s share price has declined a whopping 67% in the three years since Apple introduced the iPhone (according to an article in Bloomberg).  For some time some shareholders and analysts have been calling for the CEO, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo’s head.  The CEO has recognized thNokia One Year Stock Performancee problems facing Nokia and recently has made some internal management changes to address the issues.  Time is running out as shareholder and now possibly board member patience is dissolving.  It is hard to see at this point in time as the iPhone4, Google Android phones, Blackberries and other sophisticated smartphones are coming into the marketplace what Nokia can do to reverse its problems.  Nokia needs a Olli-Pekka Kallasvuobig winner and it needs it soon.

Fair or not it, looks as if Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo’s time as CEO may be limited.  It may be the right time for the Finnish based firm to hire a seasoned CEO from outside the firm.

For more:

Business Insider

iSECUREtrac Corporation (ISEC) featured company in Wall Street Transcript

Posted in Technology Stocks on July 15th, 2010

peter-michel.jpgPeter A. Michel, President and CEO of iSECUREtrac Corporation (ISEC), talked to the Wall Street Transcript about his company iSECUREtrac Corporation  Click here to read the complete interview.

TWST: Give our readers a thumbnail sketch of iSECUREtrac. What is the company’s mission? 

Mr. Michel: iSECUREtrac Corp. (ISEC) provides a suite of electronic monitoring systems, including GPS tracking, remote alcohol monitoring, house arrest systems and biometric voice verification, as well as client management software and intense monitoring services for use in community supervision. The data provided by the company’s equipment and software concerning a client’s location and status better enables effective compliance management and positive behavior modification. So at a high level, we are in the business of assisting our public agency customers in their community corrections activities. But at a macro level, we help individuals make better choices about their behavior and significantly reduce the cost to society of overall community supervision, both of which have a very positive impact on society.

Low-Growth Environment Translates to High Growth for Temp Staffing

Posted in General Investing on July 12th, 2010

While permanent hiring remains sluggish and recent Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers leave many disappointed, the temporary staffing sector offers investors a solid growth story amidst the uncertainties of economic recovery.

“Temporary help disproportionately benefits from a low-growth environment. Temporary help returned to healthy sequential growth in October and has shown solid sequential growth every single month through May,” said J.P. Morgan Managing Director Andrew Steinerman. “When you take all this into account, temporary help has reached a year-over-year growth of 16% in May. Also June temporary help seems to be showing further growth.”

Steinerman views niche and global staffing players as those best equipped to compete in this high-demand environment.

Robert Half (RHI), which is the ‘King Kong’ of accounting staffing, from low-end accounting staffing to high-end accounting services, is in an enviable place to be,” said Steinerman, who also likes global staffing firms Manpower (MAN) and Adecco (ADEN). “We definitely see the value of niche players, especially when they are addressing a large niche. Robert Half has a tremendous dominance in accounting staffing, far surpassing the second and third players in terms of size and recognition from both the candidate as well as the end user.”